Swiss Franc / Norwegian Krone - CHF/NOK

The fluctuations of the CHF/NOK cross are influenced by the link between the external value of the Norwegian currency and the world oil exchange rate level (the oil production represents an important part of the GDP in Norway). They are also influenced by the traditional “defensive security” status of the Swiss franc, a currency that tends to appreciate against the other world currencies in case of stagnation or economic recession.

Since 2005, we have observed a parallelism between the fluctuations of the CHF/NOK crisis and the fluctuations of the EUR/CHF cross, because the trend reversals took place at the same time and in similar senses.

With an exchange value CHF/NOK = 5,4 in February 2005, the cross was in a bearish movement (the Norwegian Krone appreciated) until April 2006 (CHF/NOK = 5,0). This movement was adjusted during the last quarter of 2006 (CHF/NOK = 5,25).

When the world oil rates were fully increasing, a bearish trend happened again until October 2007, period when the exchange value of the CHF/NOK cross reached the lower of CHF/NOK = 4,6.

While the oil rates kept increasing until the end of the first semester of, the world financial instability, which followed the subprime crisis, dominated the markets and the investors’ decisions. It is in this circumstances that the Swiss Franc fast gained ground against the Norwegian Krone.

The exchange value of the cross reached CHF/NOK = 5,0 in March 2009, but the increase (and the concomitant appreciation of the Swiss Franc) was an evidence during the Fall 2008: a higher at CHF/NOK = 6,4 was observed on the Forex at the beginning of January 2009.

So the Swiss Franc appreciated by 30% in 4 months against the Norwegian Krone.

An adjustment happened all along 2009, and we had CHF/NOK = 5,5342 in January 2010.